Oracle of NY

President Obama on the American Graduation Initiative

In Warren, Michigan:

Now, since this recession began 20 months ago, 6.5 million Americans have lost their jobs, and I don't have to tell you Michigan in particular has been hard-hit. Now, I -- the statistics are daunting. The whole country now, the unemployment rate is approaching 10 percent. Here in Michigan, it's about five points higher. And new jobs of course are going to be coming out and we're going to see continuing job loss even as the economy is beginning to stabilize.

Now, that's not just abstractions. Those just aren't numbers on a page. Those are extraordinary hardships, tough times, for families and individuals who've worked hard all their lives and have done the right things all their lives. If you haven't lost a job, chances are you know somebody who has: a family member, a neighbor, a friend, a coworker. And you know that as difficult as the financial struggle can be, the sense of loss is about more than just a paycheck, because most of us define ourselves by the work we do. That's part of what it means to be an American.  We take pride in work -- that sense that you're contributing, supporting your family, meeting your responsibilities. People need work not just for income, but because it makes you part of that fabric of a community that's so important. And so when you lose your job, and when entire communities are losing thousands of jobs, that's a heavy burden, that's a heavy weight.
 
Now, my administration has a job to do, as well, and that job is to get this economy back on its feet. That's my job. And it's a job I gladly accept. I love these folks who helped get us in this mess and then suddenly say, well, this is Obama's economy. That's fine. Give it to me. My job is to solve problems, not to stand on the sidelines and harp and gripe.

Rain to Water - Rain2o.com

I have always considered water our most valuable commodity.

On average, each person uses 100 gallons of water per day for drinking, food, washing, flushing and watering lawns and gardens. A typical 4-person household uses 146,000 gallons per year. Homeowners spend up to a few thousand dollars a year in municipal water fees.

How much rain falls on a typical roof?

50,000 gallons annually!

That’s the answer when big and small homes are averaged together and different levels of rain fall are taken into account. A modest ½” of rain yields 700 gallons of rain water on a typical roof - and all of that pours through downspouts.

Rain barrels are an excellent way to collect and store rain water for use between rains, for example, to water gardens using soaker hoses. The cost to set up a few rain barrels is modest and easily recouped through savings from reduced water bills.

For more information, please refer to www.Rain2o.com

World Economic Outlook Update from the IMF

From the Press Conference on the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report, comments by Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counselor and Director of Research:

To give you the basic numbers of the update, our forecast for world output is for a decline of 1.4 percent in 2009 and for an increase of 2.5 percent for the world as a whole in 2010. Now, 2.5 percent, the number that we have for 2010, presents a positive revision of about .6 percent relative to what we had forecast last April, and that's clearly good news. But 2.5 percent is also substantially less than the rate of growth that would keep unemployment constant so that our forecast implies further increases in unemployment probably all the way to the end of 2010.
 
So, the forces pulling the economy down originate in the financial crisis and the collapse of confidence that took place at the end of 2008, decreases in demand that led to decreases in production to decreases in unemployment, to further decreases in demand and so on and so on. And these dynamic effects were so strong that in most countries the decrease in output in the first quarter of 2009 was nearly as large as the decrease in output in the last quarter in 2008. The good news is that these forces are abating. The financial sector is stabilizing. As José Viñals described, liquidity has returned, risk appetite has increased, capital flows across countries have partly recovered. Banks, however, are still not in great shape and continue to retrench and tighten lending standards.
 
In short, and returning to the global economy, the worst is behind us and the recovery is coming. The recovery is fragile, however....

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 565,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 617,000. The 4-week moving average was 606,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised average of 616,000.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 27 was 6,883,000, an increase of 159,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,724,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,769,000, an increase of 12,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,757,000.

Fair Value Measurements: Compliance Strategies and Lessons Learned

I just returned from the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) seminar on FASB 157 - Fair Value Measurements. Karl D'Cunha, Senior Managing Director, Houlihan Smith and Harvey Poniacheck, PhD, Director of Valuations Services at RSM McGladrey, Inc. made presentations.

The focus of the presentations was on the three levels in the valuation hierarchy as defined by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in FASB 157 - and a lively discussion ensued.

It was a refreshing and informative session for the security analysts and valuations professionals in attendance.

Kudos to Karl, Harvey and NYSSA!

The Severity of the Economic Problem

U.S. Secretary of Labor Hilda L. Solis issued the following statement on the June 2009 Employment Situation report:

Today's news is a reminder of the severity of the economic problem that this administration inherited and continues to illustrate the pressing needs of American working families.

The president and I are keenly aware of the challenges Americans are facing and their struggle is the single, most important focus of this administration. We will not be satisfied until we are seeing robust monthly job growth delivering income gains to American families across the economic spectrum.

When this administration took office, the economy was shedding jobs at a rate of 700,000 per month. This past June our economy lost 467,000 jobs, bringing the total number of jobs lost since this recession began to 6.5 million. The overall unemployment rate increased to 9.5 percent.

As the administration's policies take hold, there are signs that the economy is gaining strength. Consumer confidence is rising, and the housing and financial markets are stabilizing.

Through our urgent efforts we are helping millions of Americans who have lost their jobs to regain their footing in the workplace and to lay the foundation for a new and robust economy.

The department has released more than $57 million in National Emergency Grants to help communities cope with mass layoff events and other emergencies.

We additionally have released $1.7 billion in incentive payments to states that update their unemployment insurance eligibility requirements so that more workers — including recent entrants to the workforce and part-time workers — can access benefits. So far 25 states and the District of Columbia have qualified for these payments.

We are moving swiftly to protect workers who have lost their jobs and to provide new training opportunities so that workers can upgrade their skills and prepare for new employment in growing and emerging sectors like green jobs and health care.

The Department of Labor recently awarded 98 grants, totaling more than $25 million, through our Homeless Veterans Reintegration Program. This program provides approximately 15,000 veterans with job training to help them succeed in civilian careers.

It is also of vital importance that we help our next generation succeed in the workforce. We have distributed $50 million for Youth Build programs to expand services to at-risk youth, and our Summer Youth Employment program will help employ more than 200,000 youth this summer. These efforts come in addition to the $2.5 billion in Recovery Act funds recently announced by the Vice President to help states support their education budgets.

The Recovery Act is providing much needed relief to the economy. At this very moment, 1,900 highway projects are already under way as $19 billion in transportation construction funds have been put to work. An additional $4 billion in loans and grants are creating jobs by bringing broadband service to un-served and underserved communities across America.

We are living through a time of extraordinary challenges, but Americans have long demonstrated an ability to face adversity with the dignity and strength necessary to achieve change. As I meet with workers all across this country, I am even more confident that we can meet these challenges with the same resilient attitude and commitment to innovation that has characterized our nation throughout its history.

My Tipping Point

It has been a year since I went out to Park Avenue wearing a sign board and this came out today:

www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brainstorm/200907/joshua-persky-failure

Here is a glimpse of what happened to me during the past year:

Post-employment (latest at bottom of this list, before "Pre-employment" list)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28522597

http://www.forbes.com/leadership/careers/2008/12/29/extreme-job-hunting-lead_cz_np_1229career.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-sandwichman24-2008dec24,0,3712699,full.story

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4BI5ZJ20081219

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/after-unusual-hunt-ex-banker-lands-a-job/?scp=1&sq=joshua%20persky&st=cse

http://www.wpix.com/landing/?MIT-Grad-For-Hire-Lands-Dream-Job=1&blockID=159443&feedID=1404 (video)

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12112008/news/regionalnews/better_sign_of_times_143653.htm

http://www.nypost.com/photos/galleries/news/nationalnews/pp_20081231_top_ten_stories/photo09.htm

http://www.wcbs880.com/Poster-Boy-for-Unemployment-Finds-a-Job/3442771 (audio)

 

http://www.pehub.com/25800/sandwich-board-job-hunter-gets-hired/

 

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/one-sandwich-board-guy-gets-a-job

 

http://samsklub.blogspot.com/2008/12/this-cool-blog.html

 

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/sandwich-boarders-getting-hired

 

http://cityfile.com/dailyfile/3407

 

http://mikes-random-musings.blogspot.com/2008/12/blog-surfing.html

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/09/sandwich-board-guy-gets-a_n_149683.html

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/12/the_recession_is_over.html

http://www.prweekus.com/10-PR-stunts-that-would-make-PT-Barnum-proud/article/123127/

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/12/11/america/NA-US-Sign-of-the-Times.php

http://american-tigress.blog.sohu.com/106356894.html

http://finance.sina.com.cn/j/20081119/18005527740.shtml

http://dennisandzoe.blogspot.com/2009/01/joshua-persky-gets-job-again.html

http://news.sina.com.hk/cgi-bin/nw/show.cgi/12/1/1/802910/1.html

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/20081211/sign-stunt-pays-off-for-laid-off-nyc-man.htm

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20081211&id=9444637

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1214023

http://www.ysdata.com/blogger/joshua-persky-got-a-job-with-weiser-llp/146

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/sandwich-board-banker-finds-work/275360

http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/tell_us_staten_islands_biggest.html

http://www.webcpa.com/article.cfm?articleid=30135

http://www.usatoday.com/money/workplace/2008-12-19-persky-job_N.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28317411/

http://mr6.cc/?p=2639

http://breaking-news-worldwide.com/item-america-us_news-mit_grad_hire_advice_job-2537247.html

http://www.nownews.com/2008/12/29/11493-2384877.htm

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.sandwichman28dec28,0,1548966.story

http://abajournal.com/news/after_1-year_hunt_job_search_ends_for_laid-off_investment_banker/

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/YearInReview/Story?id=6524126&page=2

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/151831/What-a-Year-Tech-Ticker-Highlights-from-2008?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,%5Eixic,dia,spy,qqqq (near end of video)

http://newsfromamericas.blogspot.com/2009/01/most-viewed-stories-of-2008-on-new-york.html

http://www.financialpost.com/most_popular/story.html?id=1160119

http://provokator.eu/innovative-new-york-jobseeker-scores-weiser-employment

http://finanse.wp.pl/kat,86154,title,Ekstremalne-poszukiwanie-pracy,wid,10743801,wiadomosc.html?ticaid=17519

http://www.talentbar.com/profiles/blogs/lost-your-job-get-creative

http://www.cio.com/article/475715/How_a_Job_Search_Led_Jason_Alba_to_Start_JibberJobber_?page=3

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/258382/339/2731191/Perskys-neuer-Job.html

http://paofeng.pixnet.net/blog/post/25403019

http://www.employmentmetrix.com/blog/2009/02/extreme-job-hunting.html

http://www.nettavisen.no/jobb/article2530948.ece

http://www.nownews.com/2009/02/04/11493-2396671.htm

http://www.fishdogs.com/2009/02/how-far-would-you-go-to-get-hired.html

http://specials.rediff.com/money/2009/feb/11slid1-do-not-blame-h-1b-workers-for-us-woes.htm

http://mr6.cc/?p=2737

http://www.nownews.com/2009/02/04/11493-2396671.htm

http://getagoodjobtw.pixnet.net/blog/post/25754501

http://tech.163.com/09/0305/21/53M37OPA0009387N.html

http://www.oyag.com/rewrite.php/read-630.html

http://blog.163.com/la_chine@126/blog/static/798017102008112853958359/

http://www.brain.com.tw/News/NewsPublicContent.aspx?ID=11962

http://chentselin.pixnet.net/blog/post/26499560

http://www.cheezhead.com/2009/03/10/personal-branding-in-a-20-recession/

http://925.nl/archief/2009/03/11/crisis-vraagt-om-showgedrag

http://forum6.hkgolden.com/view.aspx?message=1412109

http://www.ifengwo.com/wangluoguanggao/200903/14-51996.html

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/cindy3854335/22577097

http://jobsinthemoney.blogspot.com/2009/03/our-take-be-visible-not-desperate.html

http://www.soitu.es/soitu/2009/03/21/actualidad/1237650898_093587.html

http://dartmouthcareerservices.blogspot.com/2009/03/help-wanted-hybrid-job-opportunities.html

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover29-2009mar29,0,4601180.story?page=2

http://ravikantshrm99.blogspot.com/2009/04/poorest-banker-on-richest.html

http://kumawatjaiveer-jaiveer.blogspot.com/2009/04/mitsloan-graduate-and-exinvestment.html

http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/life/hire-me-please-440827/;_ylt=AhjnoAXduBvbeOS1cZcZUkKifqU5

http://much-learn.blogspot.com/2009/04/job-hunting-in-troubled-jungle.html

http://www.amazon.com/gp/blog/post/PLNK2ZMP0PI8M17IA

http://www.chaskaherald.com/news/perspectives/stay-positive-be-creative-job-hunt-105

http://alum.mit.edu/news/AlumniNews/Archive/career_transitions.jsp

http://damselindelinquency.blogspot.com/2009/05/greed-thy-name-is-man.html

http://career-advancement.suite101.com/article.cfm/fired_bankers_reinventing_themselves

http://blog.alstin.com/?p=507

http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/05/21/extreme-job-hunt-applicants-ditch-resumes-for-guerilla-tactics/

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-bac-economy-EBAY-wfc-finance/index/a/23135/from/home

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=MY&date=20090617&id=10030190

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brainstorm/200907/joshua-persky-failure

 

Pre-employment:

Television, Video

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/business/2008/07/06/santhiran.intv.persky.job.cnn

http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/news/2008/06/27/news.MIT.062608.cnnmoney

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25375822#25375822

http://www.foxnews.com/video/?playerId=videolandingpage&referralObject=1893936

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/about_us/MIT_Grad_Wears_Sign_Asking_For_Job

http://www.blinkx.com/video/ex-banker-hits-streets-for-new-job/vB9NoP7iUVULIRBRHZD-dw

http://www.blinkx.com/video/sign-of-the-times-unusual-job-hunt-for-mit-grad/nmxYRuHmDn068vXg1nmIEA

Newspapers, Magazines, Blogs and Others (latest at bottom)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/04/business/04wall.html

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/an-ex-bankers-unusual-job-pitch/

http://www.nysun.com/business/out-of-work-banker-employs-unusual-job-search

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1032002620080711

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/04/business/job.php

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2008-06-24-for-hire-sign_N.htm

http://www.wcbs880.com/pages/2472186.php?

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-07/14/content_6845348.htm

http://bbs2.worldn.media.daum.net/gaia/do/photo/read?bbsId=201&articleId=241279

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4620363a4560.html

http://www-tech.mit.edu/V128/N29/wallstreet.html

http://tn.nova.cz/red/zajimavosti/nema-praci-tak-nosi-inzerat-na-vlastnim-tele.html

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/9365373.asp?gid=196&sz=34089

http://www.taloussanomat.fi/ulkomaat/2008/07/11/wall-streetilta-saa-toita-enaa-feissaamalla/200818293/12

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/yourbusiness/story.html?id=5299e782-7767-4715-a42c-fba39bd711dd

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=124872

http://jtlservices.blogspot.com/2008/06/ultimate-american-job-board.html

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/07/its_official_rush_limbaugh_wil.html

http://notizie.efinancialcareers.it/Debate_ITEM/newsItemId-14394

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080711/REG/96521775/1028

http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/08/01/joshua-persky-desperate/

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/06/unemployed_banker_wears_mit_gr.php

http://www.talkstocktrading.com/what-becomes-of-unemployed-investment-bankers/

http://www.whatbusinesstodo.com/blogs/joshua_persky

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/03/despite-new-fame-job-hunt-continues-for-ex-banker/

http://daily.iflove.com/photo//2008-07/11/content_6838335.htm

http://www.cityfile.com/dailyfile/601

http://www.daylife.com/photo/04hnbq85gb8nr/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technology

http://valleywag.com/5019722/mit-graduate-will-work-for-food

http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?1,792634

http://patrickmurthasdiary.blogspot.com/2008/06/joshua-persky.html

http://www.groundreport.com/Business/Joshua-Persky-Sandwhich-Board-Wall-St-Banker

http://www.investmentbankeronlife.com/2008/06/then-and-now.html

http://technorati.com/posts/icPc%2BKrD6ez2FPzT664642z8bd6uUju%2BOShi2VcVMzA%3D

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26043164

http://fray.slate.com/discuss/forums/thread/1540397.aspx

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6h1pur72rok

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/16/AR2008081600021_2.html

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/08/17/wall_streets_unemployed_look_to_cupcakes_omaha/

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=16&art_id=70279&sid=20230556&con_type=1&d_str=&fc=1

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/08/15/when-wall-street-gets-bloody-the-tough-make-cupcakes/print/

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/new-money/2008/08/21/laid-off-wall-streeters-bartending-baking-cupcakes.html

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/20/business/walljobs.php

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/amerique/plus-d-etat-ou-moins-d-impots_554940.html

http://www.welt.de/wams_print/article2406796/Bankerdaemmerung-in-New-York.html

http://www.pehub.com/3089/unemployed-wall-streeter-mildly-famous-but-still-unemployed/

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2008/09/14/2008-09-14_layoffs_in_financial_market_hurt_city.html

http://www2.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?CDID=A-8321766-10342&KPLT=2

http://www.laidoff101.com/2008/09/joshua-persky/

http://www.rp-online.de/public/article/wirtschaft/news/617085/US-Banker-Nehme-jeden-Job.html

http://www.iddmagazine.com/news/185759-1.html

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/finanzen/8/311927/text/

http://blogs.reuters.com/trading-places/2008/09/26/a-time-for-change/

http://www.glamwire.com/articles/2008/10/04/investment-banker-for-hire-the-oracle-of-new-york

http://rayrlam08.blogspot.com/2008/10/layoffs-in-financial-market-hurt-city.html

http://www.bauernebel-nyc.at/

http://blog.panorama.it/economia/2008/10/07/i-riciclati-di-wall-street-una-vita-nuova-dopo-il-crac/

http://appledaily.atnext.com/template/apple/art_main.cfm?iss_id=20081016&sec_id=15335&subsec_id=2756&art_id=11725583

http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/unternehmen/:Finanzkrise-Der-American-Dream-/643075.html

http://www.pascalfischer.de/WP/?p=87

http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?CDID=A-8718032-13406&KPLT=2

http://www.terra.com.br/istoedinheiro/edicoes/584/artigo118323-1.htm (post employment!)

Metropolitan Unemployment

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Unemployment rates were higher in May than a year earlier in all 372 metropolitan areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Fifteen areas recorded jobless rates of at least 15.0 percent, while 21 areas registered rates below 5.0 percent. The national unemployment rate in May was 9.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 5.2 percent a year earlier. Among the 310 metropolitan areas for which nonfarm payroll employment were available, 295 areas recorded over-the-year declines in employment
and 15 reported increases.

In May, 112 metropolitan areas reported jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, up from 6 areas a year earlier, while 97 areas posted rates below 7.0 percent, down from 333 areas in May 2008. El Centro, Calif., recorded the highest unemployment rate, 26.8 percent, followed by Yuma, Ariz., at 23.3 percent. Among the 15 areas with jobless rates of at least 15.0 percent, 7 were located in California, 3 were in Michigan, and 2 were in Indiana. Bismarck, N.D., registered the lowest jobless rate in May, 3.5 percent, followed by Iowa City, Iowa, 3.7 percent, and Ames, Iowa, 3.8 percent. Overall, 148 areas posted unemployment rates above the U.S. figure of 9.1 percent, 215 areas reported rates below it, and 9 areas had the same rate.

For the fifth consecutive month, all 372 metropolitan areas had over-the-year unemployment rate increases. Two areas in Indiana that experienced layoffs in transportation equipment manufacturing recorded the largest jobless rate increases from May 2008: Kokomo (+11.7 percentage points) and Elkhart-Goshen (+11.4 points). The areas with the next largest over-the-year rate increases were Bend, Ore. (+8.8 percentage points), and Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, N.C. (+8.5 points). An additional 31 areas registered unemployment rate increases of 6.0 percentage points or more, and another 44 areas had rate increases of 5.0 to 5.9 points.

Transparency in Financial Markets

From Rober H. Herz, Chairman FASB, at the National Press Club:

Transparency is not just a buzz word or a cliché. It is a fundamental and absolutely essential attribute of sound financial markets. Relevant, trustworthy, and timely information is the oxygen of financial markets. Depriving markets of such information—or polluting the information—can have very adverse consequences.
 
And so additional systemic actions by others are also needed to improve disclosures and transparency at other levels—particularly those relating to the complexities and risks inherent in financial products, and to the information systems around the markets for structured securities and derivatives. Transparency to the American public around taxpayer funded investments and financial support of major U.S. companies is also essential.

President Obama Calls the Energy Bill a Jobs Bill

From President Obama's Weekly Address:

The energy bill that passed the House will finally create a set of incentives that will spark a clean energy transformation in our economy. It will spur the development of low carbon sources of energy – everything from wind, solar, and geothermal power to safer nuclear energy and cleaner coal. It will spur new energy savings, like the efficient windows and other materials that reduce heating costs in the winter and cooling costs in the summer. And most importantly, it will make possible the creation of millions of new jobs.

Make no mistake: this is a jobs bill. We’re already seeing why this is true in the clean energy investments we’re making through the Recovery Act. In California, 3000 people will be employed to build a new solar plant that will create 1000 permanent jobs. In Michigan, investment in wind turbines and wind technology is expected to create over 2,600 jobs. In Florida, three new solar projects are expected to employ 1400 people.

The list goes on and on, but the point is this: this legislation will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy. That will lead to the creation of new businesses and entire new industries. And that will lead to American jobs that pay well and cannot be outsourced. I have often talked about the need to build a new foundation for economic growth so that we do not return to the endless cycle of bubble and bust that led us to this recession. Clean energy and the jobs it creates will be absolutely critical to this new foundation.

The Value of Michael Jackson's Beatles Catalogue

In 1985, Michael Jackson bought the rights to the Beatles record catalog along with the rights to other artists' songs for $47.5 million. In 1995, he sold half the rights to Sony for $90 million. How much is the Beatles record catalog and associated rights worth today?

A music library, like any other asset, is worth the value of projected future cash flows generated by the asset. If the Beatles catalog generates $70 million a year in profits and is expected to do so for the foreseeable future, then we might value the asset at the present value of $70 million per year for the next twenty years.

However, some assets, such as sports teams, have trophy value. A sports franchise may actually lose money year after year, but increase in value due to the fact that there are a limited number of teams, and they are attractive to wealthy investors for the prestige, fame and the fun of owning them. Also, if a sports team is a top performer in its league or can improve its performance, it can actually make money for its owners.

The late Michael Jackson's share of the Beatles catalog is not only a cash generator, but it is also a trophy asset. I would say it is worth more than its present value of expected cash flows. How much more?

That is a question for the market to answer.

How much is Michael Jackson's own record catalog worth? Priceless. 

He was a year older and than I - and I will never forget listening to I Want You Back and ABC when they first aired over AM radio and I started to dance out of sheer joy.

Automated Anti-Hacking Vulnerability Assessment Report

I am in touch with an interesting startup company whose mission is to "create a disruptive approach in the global online vulnerability assessment and compliance markets, by our cutting-edge automated security testing for web applications and network systems."

They claim to challenge their competition by having significantly more automated security checks.

They are looking to work with hosting providers, information security resellers, integrators and government agencies.

They are looking for customers, business partners and funding.

If interested, please contact me at joshua.persky@sloan.mit.edu.

Iranian Freedom

Along with many millions of people around the world, my thoughts, heart and prayers are with the freedom fighters in Iran. May they walk in the path of Gandhi and King yet know without pause, doubt or fear that they have the right to defend themselves and preempt those who would dare to use force unjustly against them.

We shall overcome
We shall overcome
We shall overcome some day

Oh, deep in my heart
I do believe
We shall overcome some day

We'll walk hand in hand
We'll walk hand in hand
We'll walk hand in hand some day

We shall all be free
We shall all be free
We shall all be free some day

We are not afraid
We are not afraid
We are not afraid some day

We are not alone
We are not alone
We are not alone some day

The whole wide world around
The whole wide world around
The whole wide world around some day

We shall overcome
We shall overcome
We shall overcome some day

Oh, deep in my heart
I do believe
We shall overcome some day

This is a bit out of left field, but since I love to play with words and numbers, I'll share some word addition with you.

If a=1, b=2, c=3, d=4 ... z=26

then I+R+A+N+I+A+N = I+S+L+A+M+I+C = F+R+E+E+D+O+M = F+A+M+I+L+Y = M+A+N+K+I+N+D

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 7 – Acceptance

I did not arrive at my final stage of grief—acceptance—until I had left Manhattan and moved in with my sister’s family in Larchmont.

I know I had reached the acceptance stage of my financial grief at that time, when I was living in my sister’s basement and sleeping on her couch, because that is when I finally registered for unemployment insurance—a full nine months after I had lost my job.

For nine months, my wife had begged me over and over to register for unemployment insurance, and I had repeatedly told her, “I don’t have time.”

Talk about denial!

A few weeks after I registered for unemployment, I started receiving checks, and the money almost exactly covered my expenses. I then requested from the New York State Department of Labor that they pay me from the time I was initially unemployed, credit for a period during which no valid claim was filed, but my request was denied.

Apparently, I learned the hard way. You can only get unemployment insurance from the time you register.

What had I been thinking? I should have registered the day after I had received my last pay check. I could have used the money to support my children or reduce my credit card debt, yet I couldn’t bring myself to do it.

When I told the authorities that I had been proud, stubborn and stupid, they were not convinced. I don’t think it would have made any difference if I had told them that I had been in shock and denial. I should have told myself on January 1st, a day after my last paycheck, “Get over it and register for unemployment insurance!”

Reaching the stage of acceptance was also the turning point in my efforts to find a job. That is when I let professional career coach and business strategist Paloma Bowland into my life, started a serious self-evaluation, revised my resume, unified my social networking and marketing efforts, strengthened my brand and started feeling better about myself. That is when my search turned around and leads started solidifying in a manner in which they had not done so before. I soon found a job in my field.

In retrospect, I can clearly see how I passed through the seven stages of grief—shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, testing and acceptance—and I can clearly see how my personal job-loss grief unambiguously expressed itself in my relationship with money as I was searching for a job.

However, all during my job search, the only notion of which I was fully conscious was that I needed to find a job—and on that I never gave up.

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 6 – Testing

The next stage of grief is testing. A grieving person looks for a way out of his or her depression and starts testing ideas or activities that might help.

For me, the testing stage evoked my moment of creative inspiration. I got the idea to go out to Park Avenue, put on a sign board and hand out resumes. In fact, my entire summer was a testing stage for financial grief.

Consequent to my viral publicity, I was introduced to many interesting people and opportunities—and because I was naturally curious and did not know what would work out, I considered them all.

I corresponded and spoke with dozens of people who persistently tried to convince me to join their multilevel marketing programs, met with an accomplished engineer and businessman in the Hudson Valley who wanted me to sell lychee wine store-to-store, spent a week with the Ahab-like founder of a start-up company who was developing an automated stock trading system, met with several boutique investment banks with the idea of starting up and managing a hedge fund portfolio valuations group, met with a Cleaning Diva to see if we could join forces, met with an insurance representative who wanted me to sell supplemental work insurance, met with an ambitious real-estate entrepreneur on Wall Street who wanted to me to help purchase undervalued toxic assets from failing financial institutions and flew to Dallas to meet with a trio of entrepreneurs who were trying to develop an energy drink for the Latino market, promote a hyperbaric chamber for chronic wound care and find investors for a municipal bond hedge fund.

I tried anything and everything—and nothing worked—other than becoming more and more famous for being the "Face of the American Economy," "Sign of the Times" and the "Sandwich Board Guy."

Inspirational Speaking

The 1010 WINS Personal Finance Breakfast at the NY Hilton was a wonderful and successful event. Thank you Judy DeAngelis, Sara Burningham, Amy Oliver and the entire 1010 WINS crew!

It was also exciting and a pleasure to meet and speak with the other panelists: Jean Chatzky, Richard Lipstein, Kathy Boyle and Mellissa Bushell - whose cupcakes are a real treat.

The event resulted in Paloma Bowland - my career coach and business strategist who was in the audience - and I being invited to speak at a different event in the fall.

The event received excellent coverage by Laurie Petersen at Minyanville.com

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-bac-economy-EBAY-wfc-finance/index/a/23135/from/home

 

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 5 – Depression

By the end of May, Cindy and I knew we had come to the end of our rope. That’s when she told me we were going to put our belongings in storage, and she was going to take the kids to Omaha—and that’s when I entered the next stage of grief, depression.

Leave our apartment and put our stuff in storage? Oh, my God, what had we come to? Cindy was going to take the kids to Omaha, but what was I going to do?

I had no money. My credit cards were maxed out. I planned to host my older children for the summer, and I needed to keep looking for a job.

My father and step-mother had enough room to host us in Rhinebeck, but I knew they were not as energetic as they used to be and were not up to the challenge of hosting us for more than a few days. Furthermore, Rhinebeck was at least a two-hour trip from the city. How would I get to meetings and interviews in the city?

What I did not know at the time was that my parent’s health was becoming so fragile, they could no longer maintain their house or feel confident they could handle an emergency. They were planning to rent or sell their house and move into an independent living facility.

I spoke with my father and asked him what to do.

My father had always been a great provider, and I had asked him for help before, but I had never felt so defeated and desperate. I had never before felt as though I was imposing. I asked him if he would either take me in or give me enough money to survive for the summer. I knew I was putting him on the line, but he spoke with my brother—and they each sent me a check.

I had never felt so helpless before. I felt as though I was not only ruining my own life, but I was bringing everyone around me down into a bottomless pit.

I had destroyed my wife’s dreams and my children’s opportunity. I was asking my family for money when they were all facing their own financial challenges.

Where and when was it going to end? How was I going to get back on my feet?

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 4 – Bargaining

It was soon after the Bear Stearns collapse that I started reaching out in new directions. I realized that my focus on valuations and related positions at investment banks, private equity and hedge funds might be too narrow.

I started to look for business development positions. Before I had transitioned to commercial and investment banking, my experience had been in international  business development for a satellite network communication company.

It was my way of entering the next stage of financial grief, bargaining. That’s when you try an alternative route to avoid disaster or temper the effects of a disaster that has already happened.

It was then that I started reaching out to acquaintances I barely knew. My wife and I started asking the parents of our children’s nursery school and kindergarten classmates if they knew of any job openings.

Amazingly, one of our acquaintances responded positively. He was a Director of Business Development for one of the largest computer manufacturers and business services providers in the world and said he might be able to squeeze me in. He just needed to convince a few colleagues and get budget approval.

The possibility of a job with one of the biggest and best companies in the world kept my hopes up, but the process moved forward slowly.

I had a telephone interview at the end of April which seemed to go well, but toward the end of May my acquaintance said he was still waiting for approval to hire me.

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 3 – Anger

Perhaps, it took the Bear Stearns collapse to move me to the next stage of job loss grief, anger. It was the slap in the face that took me out of shock and denial.

When Bear Stearns collapsed, I started realizing that things were not the same as they had been before. Just as I should have been re-entering the job market, the job market was falling apart.

I watched news reports of people walking out of Bear Stearns with their cartons of belongings—and they were in shock. I had acquaintances at Bear Stearns with whom I was trying to network, trying to get my foot in the door—and with a bang, the door was slammed shut on them too.

Suddenly there were thousands of highly-qualified bankers looking for jobs, and the competition was fierce.

I started wondering how long it would take me to find a job. Three months had passed since I had left a prestigious investment bank, and another firm which had called me every few months while I had worked there no longer seemed interested.

I’m not one to get angry easily, but I was certainly starting to feel the pain.

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 601,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 621,750, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,250. 

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 30 was 6,816,000, an increase of 59,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,757,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,750,500, an increase of 57,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,693,250.  

Reuters and a Pink Slip Party

I went to my first Pink Slip Party down on Varick Street at the City Winery. It was an excellent networking event and I met many interesting people searching for work, looking to hire and marketing their wares, such as One Wire Finance www.onewire.com a web site for "precise connections between finance professionals and firms."

I did not wear my sign board, but moments before I left to the event, this article came out in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/trading-places/2009/06/10/a-time-for-change-part-ii/

When I returned home, I received an email from a colleague pointing out an article that had been published about A. J. Liebling in the New York Times this past weekend, including:

During the Depression he paid a sandwich-board man $2 a day to walk along Park Row with a sign reading “Hire Joe Liebling” in hopes of catching the eye of the city editor of his dream employer, The World.

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief (cont.)

Stage 2 – Denial

The next stage of my job-loss grief was denial—and boy was I in denial—financial denial.

For several months, my wife and I did not change a single habit.

I paid the rent and paid child support—as I had always done before. Cindy and I kept going out on our romantic night-on-the-town Saturday night dates. Our cleaning lady showed up once or twice a week. The kids continued with their after-school classes. We even flew to Montreal in the middle of a blizzard for a long weekend to celebrate my brother-in-law’s Super Bowl Sunday wedding—and I trekked through knee-deep snow in a tux.

Life was good!

What were we thinking? How could I have been so confident that I would find a job?

7 Stages of Job Loss Grief

Stage 1 - Shock

The late famed psychiatrist Dr. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross wrote about the stages of grief through which a person passes when they lose a loved one. It has been proposed that a person goes through similar stages of grief, perhaps with a lesser intensity—we have to keep things in perspective—when they lose a job.

In retrospect, I can clearly see that my relationship with money subsequent to losing my job mirrored the typical stages of grief a person goes through when they lose a loved one—shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, testing and eventual acceptance.

When I first lost my job I was in shock. I didn’t believe it mattered I had lost my job and rationalized my loss by reminding myself I had not been happy at my job anyway. Why should I care if I lost my job? I would soon find something better. I would make more money at another investment bank, hedge fund or private equity firm and maybe even earn some respect for my hard work.

I know I was in shock, because I did not imagine I would have financial problems down the line. In fact, I thought I would be better off.

I admit I had an emotional reaction to losing my job. I felt rejected—but I did not feel anything financially. I was financially numb and was in financial shock. I even started day-trading—and the losses mounted quickly.

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 621,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 631,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 627,250.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 23 was 6,735,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,750,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,687,500, an increase of 88,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,598,750.

6 Million Jobs Lost

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke to the U.S. House of Representatives:

The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last fall, with real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an average annual rate of about 6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year.

Among the enormous costs of the downturn is the loss of nearly 6 million jobs since the beginning of 2008. The most recent information on the labor market--the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late May--suggests that sizable job losses and further increases in unemployment are likely over the next few months.

However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing. Notably, consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, has been roughly flat since the turn of the year, and consumer sentiment has improved.

In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.

Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further.

We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes.

And from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Unemployment rates were higher in April than a year earlier in all 372 metropolitan areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. 

Thirteen areas recorded jobless rates of at least 15.0 percent, while 31 areas registered rates below 5.0 percent. 

The national unemployment rate in April was 8.6 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 4.8 percent a year earlier. 

General Motors and Housing Starts

The headlines are still full of dramatic financial and corporate events - General Motors declares bankruptcy and sells its Hummer line to China - monthly housing starts rise the most in eight years - three major banks move closer to repaying TARP bailout funds - two Boston hedge funds are closing down.

The message is mixed but the worst is over, and we are on the bumpy road to recovery. Even the stock market seems to be telling us that by the end of the year, the economic environment will be better.

The big question for many people is how will they survive until things get better?

The answer is a multi-faceted combination of creativity, perseverance, family, friends and community - but everyone can get by if we all chip in and make it so!

From Athens to Reunion Island

Emails are still arriving from around the world:

Hi Joshua,
Saw your sandwich board in a picture....I'm in Athens, Greece.
I saw the picture on SKAI (major news portal and tv channel in Greece, pronounced "sky"), here. I guess you found a job since then. But was it because of the board?
If so, was it because of someone who saw it in real life, or because of the picture that circulated around the globe?
Best George

Hi there,
I saw your picture from a french finance magazine, how you doing?
I am Chinese, but I am now living in Reunion Island, it's a French Territory, maybe you never heard of it.
Did you get a job?
Hope everything is well by your side.
Cheers,
Crystal

          

Personal Finance Breakfast - 1010 WINS

Here's some information on my upcoming speaking engagement at the The New York Hilton on June 16th, 7-10am.

From the 1010wins.com web site:

At this event, you'll receive financial tips and advice from a panel of experts. From mortgages, to credit card debt, to finding ways to send kids to college to the best way to save, you will be able to not only hear great advice but ask questions of our panelists and our sponsors!

Morning News Anchor Judy DeAngelis will host: Jean Chatzky, Award-winning journalist, best-selling author and sought-after motivational speaker; Richard Lipstein, Managing Director for Boyden Global Executive Search; Kathy Boyle, Founder & President of Chapin Hill Advisors, Inc.; Melissa Bushell, Entrepreneur; and Joshua Persky, Founder oracleofny.com

For more information and registration:

http://www.1010wins.com/1010-WINS-Personal-Finance-Breakfast/4399691

Inspirational Job Hunting

I am still being touted as an extreme job hunter and was used as an example in a recent article in the Christian Science Monitor.

http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/05/21/extreme-job-hunt-applicants-ditch-resumes-for-guerilla-tactics/

In the article, David Perry, author of Guerrilla Marketing for Job Hunters points out that although you may use a gimmick to stand out, you should be careful to stay within the bounds of good taste.

I agree completely and only want to add a comment by quoting the bard, "To thine own self be true, and it must follow, as the night the day, thou canst not then be false to any man."

Find your inspiration and go with it!

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 631,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 643,000. The 4-week moving average was 628,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,000.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 9 was 6,662,000, an increase of 75,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,587,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,480,500, an increase of 131,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,349,500.

Unemployment Projections from the Fed

From the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC):

In light of their expectation that the recovery will begin gradually, with output initially rising at a below potential rate, participants anticipated that labor market conditions would continue to deteriorate over the remainder of this year.

Their projections for the average unemployment rate during the fourth quarter of 2009 had a central tendency of 9.2 to 9.6 percent, noticeably higher than the actual unemployment rate of 8.5 percent in March—the latest reading available at the time of the April FOMC meeting.

All participants revised up their forecasts of the unemployment rate at the end of this year relative to their January projections, reflecting the sharper-than-expected rise in actual unemployment that occurred during the first quarter as well as the downward revisions in their forecasts of output growth in 2009.

Most participants anticipated that growth next year would not substantially exceed its longer-run sustainable rate and hence that the unemployment rate would decline only modestly in 2010; some also pointed to the friction of a reallocation of resources away from shrinking economic sectors as likely to restrain progress in reducing unemployment.

With output growth and job creation generally projected to pick up appreciably in 2011, participants anticipated that joblessness would decline more noticeably, as evident from the central tendency of 7.7 to 8.5 percent for their projections of the unemployment rate in late 2011.

Even so, they expected that the unemployment rate at the end of 2011 would still be declining toward its longer-run sustainable level. Participants projected that unemployment would decline further after 2011; most saw the unemployment rate eventually converging to 4.8 to 5.0 percent.

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcminutes20090429.pdf

Come to China for More Opportunities

My photograph and story are still circulating the globe, and I still receive emails from around the world, especially from Hong Kong, China:

Hello Sir,

This is Nick from Hong Kong. We don't know each other though,the other day I occasionally ran into you in the photo on the internet (See the photo attached).  I am rather impressed by the way you look for a job.  With the email shown on the board, I am writing to you just to say "Hello". 

In the period of economic recession, It is hard indeed to find a decent job everywhere around in the world. But hey, why not come to China for more opportunities. China is full of opportunities for foreigners.

Hopefully you could soon find a job in the USA. If not, think of what i 've told you. No harm can come of trying.  May you Godspeed and Good Luck! 

Best regards,
Nick

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)

From the Recovery.gov web site:

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is an unprecedented effort to jumpstart our economy, save and create millions of jobs, and put a down payment on addressing long-neglected challenges so our country can thrive in the 21st century. The Recovery and Reinvestment Act is an extraordinary response to a crisis unlike any since the Great Depression. 

With much at stake, the Act provides for unprecedented levels of transparency and accountability so that you will be able to know how, when, and where your tax dollars are being spent. Spearheaded by a new Recovery Board, this Act contains built-in measures to root out waste, inefficiency, and unnecessary spending.

This website, Recovery.gov, will be the main vehicle to provide each and every citizen with the ability to monitor the progress of the recovery. As the centerpiece of the President’s commitment to transparency and accountability, Recovery.gov will feature information on how the Act is working, tools to help you hold the government accountable, and up-to-date data on the expenditure of funds.

The site will include information about Federal grant awards and contracts as well as formula grant allocations. Federal agencies will provide data on how they are using the money, and eventually, prime recipients of Federal funding will provide information on how they are using their Federal funds. On our end, we will use interactive graphics to illustrate where the money is going, as well as estimates of how many jobs are being created, and where they are located. And there will be search capability to make it easier for you to track the funds.

The first incarnation of Recovery.gov features projections for how, when, and where the funds will be spent -- which states and sectors of the economy are due to receive what proportion of the funds. As money starts to flow, far more data will become available.

www.recovery.gov/

To Omaha and Back

What a week it’s been. I just returned to NYC from Omaha where I attended my son’s nursery school graduation and my daughter’s ballet recital. Both events were full of color, music and dance, proud parents and cute kids.
 
Although most of locals with whom I spoke seemed to be doing OK, they were wearied by the challenging economy and mentioned the travails of unemployed friends and family members. A friend of my wife’s forwarded her resume to me for review.
 
My in-laws seemed most disappointed by the defeat of Hal Daub, their close friend and candidate of choice in the recent mayoral election.
 
Back in NYC, I am looking forward to being on a panel with several personal finance and career management experts speaking at a breakfast for 400 at the Hilton in mid-June.

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 637,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 630,500, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 624,500.

 

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 2 was 6,560,000, an increase of 202,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,358,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,337,250, an increase of 128,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,208,500.

New Arrangements to Borrow for the IMF

Text of a letter from the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives:

Dear Madam Speaker:

Last month, I asked the Congress to consider changes to the level of borrowing authority for the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Today, I formally transmit this request in the accompanying supplemental budget request. I urge that the Congress expand the resources available to the IMF through its New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) and approve a set of other proposals to strengthen the IMF, including an increase of about $8 billion in the U.S. quota subscription to the IMF.

The NAB is one mechanism that the IMF utilizes to boost its lending ability when its regular resources are at their limit in the face of circumstances that threaten the stability of the international monetary system. This increase in the NAB by the United States and other countries would provide the necessary resources for the IMF to address financial dangers in markets around the world, especially those in developing countries impacted by the global financial crisis.

To that end, I request that the Congress approve both the U.S. expansion of NAB up to $100 billion and the increase in the U.S. quota subscription. The size of the NAB is currently $50 billion. This change, and the U.S. quota increase, should carry a minimal budget score as it is equivalent in some respects to credit activity with very small risk. The request provides that the costs of these proposed NAB and quota increases will be reflected on a net present value basis.

This step is crucial for U.S. economic interests. Many of the developing countries that would benefit from the NAB expansion are experiencing severe economic decline and a massive withdrawal of capital. Should the situation become worse, and should the IMF not be in a position to stem the crisis, currencies could collapse. The experience with the Asian financial crisis shows that such a massive failure would be a catalyst for steeper drops in U.S. growth, jobs, and exports.

This proposal, first discussed at the international level at the recent G-20 meetings in London, came after broad consultation with Congress. The U.S. expansion of $100 billion in the NAB would be part of an overall international expansion of $500 billion. We committed to this expansion, and other countries are looking to the United States to deliver on our commitment.

Sincerely,
BARACK OBAMA

Hiring Rates

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

On the last business day of March, job openings in the U.S. numbered 2.7 million. The job openings level and rate (2.0 percent) were at their lowest points since the series began over 8 years ago. The hires rate (3.1 percent) was little changed in March and remained low. The total separations rate (3.6 percent) was unchanged in March.
 
The number of job openings has trended downward since mid- 2007, and, at 2.7 million in March, monthly openings were down 2.1 million, or 44 percent, since the most recent high point in June 2007.
 
Over the 12 months ending in March, the job openings rate fell significantly in nearly every industry and in three of the four regions. The rate did not change significantly in the Northeast region and in construction; information; other services; and federal government.
 
Hires, at 4.2 million in March, were essentially unchanged from February.  However, monthly hires were down 1.5 million, or 26 percent, since the most recent high point in July 2006. The hires rate was 3.1 percent in March. No industry experienced a significant change in the hires rate over the month. Regionally, the rate changed significantly only in the Northeast, where it fell.
 
Over the 12 months ending in March, the hires rate did not increase significantly in any industry. The rate decreased significantly over the year for total nonfarm, total private, and many industries, including mining and logging; finance and insurance; professional and business services; health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and state and local government. Regionally, the hires rate dropped significantly over the past 12 months in the South and West. The rate did not change significantly in the Midwest and Northeast.
 
Total separations includes quits (voluntary separations), layoffs and discharges (involuntary separations), and other separations (including retirements).  The total separations, or turnover, rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3.6 percent in March, unchanged from February. The total separations rate (not seasonally adjusted) was also essentially unchanged over the 12 months ending in March, as quits fell while layoffs and discharges rose.
 
The quits rate can serve as a barometer of workers’ willingness or ability to change jobs. The rate remained at 1.4 percent in March—the lowest point in the 8-year series. Quits have been trending downward since December 2006, declining by 1.3 million, or 42 percent. Comparing March 2009 to March 2008, the quits rate was significantly lower for total nonfarm, total private, government, and many industries, including durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; finance and insurance; professional and business services; health care and social assistance; and accommodation and food services. The rate did not rise significantly in the past 12 months in any industry. Regionally, the quits rate fell significantly over the past 12 months in all four regions.
 
In the 12 months ending in March, hires totaled 54.6 million and separations totaled 58.9 million, yielding a net employment loss over the year of 4.3 million. The loss resulted from total separations remaining relatively level over the year, while hires trended downward.
 
 
 

Bouncing Back

The economy is bouncing back or at least not slowing as rapidly as before. Yet employment is at 8.9% and more than thirteen million people in the United States need jobs. Even as the economy recovers, the unemployment rate may get worse, and it will take people a long time to find jobs and get back on their feet.

Even the Oracle of Omaha had a losing quarter. Berkshire Hathaway lost $1.5 billion. However, I really like the Berkshire Hathaway Quarterly Report. In Note 8 on page 10, it clearly defines the three levels of fair value measurement and summarizes the company's assets and liabilities broken down into the three levels. I appreciate the transparency.

www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr09.pdf

People bounce back and economies bounce back. As an iconic symbol of the Great Recession, I appear on page 69 of the June 2009 issue of Psychology Today, in good company with Cindy Chupak and Penelope Trunk - and my first caricature. The issue has a few interesting articles about perseverance and transcendence in challenging times.

Senior Editor Jay Dixit's profiles of me and several other resilient people are not included in the online version of the article, but it is a good read.

www.psychologytoday.com/articles/pto-20090429-000002.xml

Stress Test Results: CAP and SCAP

Statement from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner regarding the Treasury Capital Assistance Program and the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program:

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve and the national banking agencies released the results of the stress tests - the most comprehensive, forward looking review of our nation's largest banks ever undertaken. These tests will help ensure that banks have a sufficient capital cushion to continue lending in a more adverse economic scenario. They will provide the transparency necessary for individuals and markets to judge the strength of the banking system.

This capital assessment is an important part, but just one part of the President's comprehensive plan to stabilize and repair the financial system and help get credit flowing again. Over the last three months, we have put in place a series of programs to address the housing crisis, to help restart the securities markets that are critical to business and consumer lending, to catalyze small business lending in particular, and to help create a market for legacy real estate related loans and thereby help clean up bank balance sheets.

Alongside these programs, we have worked to restore confidence in the banking system. The assessment announced today will help strengthen the lending capacity of banks, with greater transparency and actions to reinforce the amount of capital banks hold against the risk of future losses. Capital is critical to lending. Each dollar of capital generates up to 12 dollars of lending capacity. And each dollar of lending capacity helps businesses grow and reduces the cost of borrowing for firms and families.

Greater disclosure will help improve confidence. Today's results should make it easier for investors to evaluate risk and to differentiate across institutions. The stress test will help replace the cloud of uncertainty hanging over our banking system with an unprecedented level of transparency and clarity. This is important, as markets work best when they have full access to the information on which to make informed investment decisions. With better disclosure, private capital is more likely to flow into the financial system, which will accelerate the point at which banks can replace the government's investments.

www.financialstability.gov/docs/SCAPresults.pdf

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 601,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 635,000. The 4-week moving average was 623,500, a decrease of 14,750 from the previous week's revised average of 638,250.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 25 was 6,351,000, an increase of 56,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,295,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,207,250, an increase of 125,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,082,000.

Stress Test

From the joint statement by Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Sheila Bair, and Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan:

During this period of extraordinary economic uncertainty, the U.S. federal banking supervisors believe it to be important for the largest U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) to have a capital buffer sufficient to withstand losses and sustain lending even in a significantly more adverse economic environment than is currently anticipated.

In keeping with this aim, the Federal Reserve and other federal bank supervisors have been engaged in a comprehensive capital assessment exercise--known as the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP)--with each of the 19 largest U.S. BHCs.

The SCAP will be completed this week and the results released publicly by the Federal Reserve Board on Thursday May 7th, 2009 at 5pm EDT. In this release, supervisors will report--under the SCAP "more adverse" scenario, for each of the 19 institutions individually and in the aggregate--their estimates of: losses and loss rates across select categories of loans; resources available to absorb those losses; and the resulting necessary additions to capital buffers.

The estimates reported by the Federal Reserve represent values for a hypothetical 'what-if' scenario and are not forecasts of expected losses or revenues for the firms.

Any BHC needing to augment its capital buffer at the conclusion of the SCAP will have until June 8th, 2009 to develop a detailed capital plan, and until November 9th, 2009 to implement that capital plan.

The SCAP is a complement to the Treasury's Capital Assistance Program (CAP), which makes capital available to financial institutions as a bridge to private capital in the future. A strong, resilient financial system is necessary to facilitate a broad and sustainable economic recovery.

 The U.S. government reaffirms its commitment to stand firmly behind the banking system during this period of financial strain to ensure it can perform its key function of providing credit to households and businesses.

The Economic Outlook

From Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's testimony before Congress: 

The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last autumn, with real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an annual rate of more than 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year.

Among the enormous costs of the downturn is the loss of some 5 million payroll jobs over the past 15 months. The most recent information on the labor market--the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late April--suggests that we are likely to see further sizable job losses and increased unemployment in coming months.

However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of contraction may be slowing, and they include some tentative signs that final demand, especially demand by households, may be stabilizing.

Consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, grew in the first quarter. In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program, and we have seen some improvement in consumer sentiment.

Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market and the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years. In addition, credit conditions for consumers remain tight.

OECD International Trade Statistics

From the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD):

G7 exports fell 9.5% while imports were down 5.6% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2008. Year-on-year exports dropped 7.9% and imports fell 6.4% in the fourth quarter.

In the United States, export volume growth dropped 7.8% and imports fell 5.1%. Compared with the previous 12 months, exports declined by 2.3% for the first time since the last quarter of 2006. The 8.4% fall in import volumes accelerated the downward trend from the first quarter 2008.

Japan’s exports plunged 19.3% in the fourth quarter 2008, about twice the rate of the G7, while imports fell 4.6%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 20.1% drop for exports and a 6.8% decline in imports

German quarter-on-quarter exports dropped by 9.0% and imports by 6.1% in the fourth quarter. On a year-on-year basis exports fell 7.8% while imports were down 1.8%: the first falls for Germany since the fourth quarter 2006

EU15 Extra-EU quarter-to-quarter exports dropped with 6.3% less sharply than G7 exports, while the fall in imports was more pronounced with 7.3%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 5.2% decline for exports, while imports were down 5.7%.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, the value of exports and imports of goods and services in OECD countries, measured in current US dollars, collapsed to an unprecedented low, falling by a seasonally adjusted 18.6% and 18.5% respectively compared with the previous quarter. However, provisional monthly data for January and February 2009 suggest a slowing down of the rate of decline.

On a year-on-year basis, growth in the value of exports and imports of goods and services plunged by 11.6% for exports and by 10.4% for imports in the fourth quarter. In both comparisons, goods fell more sharply than services.

www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/36/42668007.pdf

The Oracle of Omaha's Local Stimulus Meeting

One of the best consequences of the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in Omaha is the business it brings to the local economy. I am sure it is much appreciated this year.

From Joe Ruff of the Omaha World-Herald, reporting live from the annual meeting:

A shareholder asks how Buffett views the markets' valuation of Berkshire shares. The market has it down 30 percent, while earnings were not down that far.

Buffett says the shareholder put his finger on something there. Buffett says the investments are what they are in the stock market, so he does not have a problem with that side of the equation. Buffett says the earning power of businesses were down last year and will not do as well this year. But they are by and large good businesses. He says a few of them have problems, others will do very well. Buffett says Berkshire was cheaper in the stock market last year than its intrinsic value would indicate, but most companies were in the same boat. Buffett says over time, both stock price and intrinsic value will increase. And he hopes the operating companies over time will do better.

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 631,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 645,000. The 4-week moving average was 637,250, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week's revised average of 648,000.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 18 was 6,271,000, an increase of 133,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,138,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,076,000, an increase of 131,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,944,500.

WHO

From the World Health Organization's web site:

Based on assessment of all available information and following several expert consultations, Dr Margaret Chan, WHO's Director-General raised the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to 5. She stated that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

www.who.int/en/

Swine Flu vs. SARS

From an article published by Reuters, written by Vidya Ranganathan:

According to the Asian Development Bank, the cost of SARS in terms of lost GDP in nominal terms for East and Southeast Asia was about $18 billion or 0.6 percentage points of 2003 GDP.

The main channels through which SARS affected economies was through tourist arrivals. ADB data shows a 20-70 percent drop on tourist arrivals in April 2003 in the most affected economies, while others in Asia also saw declines of 15-35 percent, leading to estimated tourism revenue losses of nearly $15 billion or 0.5 percent of GDP.

SARS-affected economies experienced drops in retail sales growth in the order of 5-10 percent in early 2003. Hong Kong's economy shrank 2.6 percent and Singapore's by 2 percent in the first half of 2003. Overall growth was ironically helped by a simultaneous decline in imports and investment.

Spain's Unemployment Tops 17%

From Spain's National Institute of Statistics:

Unemployment grew by 802,800 persons this quarter. The total number of unemployed persons stood at 4,010,700, with an increase of 1,836,500 in the last 12 months. The unemployment rate increased 3.45 points in the first quarter of the year, and reached 17.36% of the active population.

Unemployment increased more for men (507,000) than for women (295,900) this quarter. The total number of unemployed men was 2,195,800 and the number of unemployed women was 1,814,900 persons.

The male unemployment rate was 16.86%, that is, 3.89 points higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008. The female rate increased 2.88 points, standing at 18.01%. In recent quarters, the two rates have progressively converged.

Unemployment grew by 524,700 persons among Spaniards, and by 278,100 persons among foreign nationals. The unemployment rate for Spaniards was 15.24% (2.72 points higher than the previous quarter), and that for foreign nationals was 28.39% (7.13 points higher).

Unemployment by the Numbers (cont.)

From the U.S. Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 640,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 613,000. The 4-week moving average was 646,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 651,000.
 
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 11 was 6,137,000, an increase of 93,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,044,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,944,000, an increase of 142,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,801,500.  

IMF's World Economic Outlook

From the IMF web site:

In the most severe recession since World War II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.3 percent in 2009, with a slow recovery expected to take hold next year, according to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook (WEO).

While the rate of contraction should moderate from the second quarter of 2009 onward, output per capita is projected to decline in countries representing three-quarters of the global economy. Growth is projected to reemerge in 2010, but at 1.9 percent it would be sluggish relative to past recoveries.

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard told reporters that the world economy was being battered by competing crosscurrents, with the collapse in confidence and demand continuing to pull the economy down and government stimulus measures and natural stabilization mechanisms pulling the economy up.

“This is not the time for complacency, and the need for strong policies, both on the macro and especially on the financial fronts, is as acute as ever. But, with such policies in place, there is light at the end of this long tunnel. World growth can turn positive by the end of this year, and unemployment can start decreasing by the end of next year.”

Although Blanchard said that today “the first current strongly dominates the second,” he could see the balance shifting towards the end of the year, with growth in advanced countries becoming positive again in 2010, and returning to its normal level around the end of 2010.”

Unemployment will crest only toward the end of 2010, however, and should decrease after that. Historical evidence presented in the WEO suggests recovery may be slower than in other recessions.