Oracle of NY

Daddy’s Home

When I returned home to our apartment on the Upper East Side, my little children Isabella and Isaac, as they often did unless they were utterly engrossed in an art project, TV program or napping on the couch, ran up to me with smiles, giggles and hugs around my legs. “Daddy’s home!”

As accustomed, they quickly backed off and returned to their activities, giving me a few minutes to change out of my suit and into something more comfortable.

“How was your day?” asked my wife Cindy. She emerged from the kitchen where she was preparing dinner.I sat down on the couch.

“I was fired again.”

“Oh,” sighed Cindy.

“I’m not surprised. We knew this was going to happen. Are you OK?”

She did not seem too upset. “I’m OK. Are you OK?”

I approached and hugged her. “Now you can do your own thing. You’ve always wanted to be a trader. Now’s your chance, or you can start you own valuations firm.”

“They must have sensed how miserable I was.”

“The Managing Director called you into his office?”

“No, the Senior VP from the Washington office.”

“That Managing Director couldn’t even tell you himself? Just like last time. I don’t like the way they treated you.”

“He did exactly what he said he would do. When he hired me, he told me, ‘You’ll pay your dues for a couple of years, and I’ll give you a new career.’ It was good while it lasted.”

“They should have made you the Managing Director. You should have been telling them what to do.”

“I have six weeks. I’ll start looking for a job tomorrow.”

“You’ve been looking for a job for two years.”

“Oh, come on. I’ve sent out a few resumes and made a few calls. It’s not easy. You have to know someone. It’s always the politics. Who will do the work when I’m not there?”

“Don’t worry about them, worry about us. You’ve got to figure out what to do!”

Park Avenue Amble

My walks were often the highlight of my day. If the weather was bad, I ducked into Grand Central Station, meandering through the busy food courts, market stalls and shops.

These walks kept me sane, healthy and in good humor. A midday walk was essential—and on days when I planned to work late, an evening walk was too.

Usually, I strolled on Park Avenue, uplifted by the wealth and pride of the people, buildings and financial institutions that made up the famous strip. Sometimes, I walked east to the United Nations, intrigued by the embassies and the wealth of nations. On occasion, I walked to Park Avenue South to catch the sun which was blocked to the north by the Met Life Building. Other times, I meandered by the New York Public Library to enjoy the open space at Bryant Park.

I hoped I could find another job in the same neighborhood. I loved watching the figure skaters at the Bryant Park during the winter and sitting in the sun for a few minutes during the summer. There was almost always entertainment in the park—music, theater or a fashion show.

I also loved Grand Central Station. There were often interesting cultural exhibitions in Vanderbilt Hall—or a movie being filmed in the Main Concourse. Although I rarely ate in the food court, I enjoyed walking by all the restaurants to relish the amazing variety of food on display.

Having just been fired for the second time, I strolled uptown along Park Avenue. Who would do all my work? Did they consider how much profit I generated? Did they appreciate that my clients repeatedly sent me thank you notes praising my work and attentiveness? Would they ask me to stay again?

I was upset, but I was also somewhat relieved. Indeed, my relationship with Houlihan Lokey had been tenuous from the beginning.

I glanced over at the Charles Schwab office on the corner of 50th and Park. Maybe I’ll start a hedge fund, I thought, or become a professional stock trader. I loved following the market and ever since my first job on the floor of the American Stock Exchange, I had always wanted to work with the market. I had gone off in a different direction, but I could return to it. It would be exciting and best of all, I would be my own boss.

As I arrived at the large Seagram’s Building plaza housing a metallic Calder sculpture on 52nd and Park Avenue, my blood started to boil and my eyes wandered between the sky and the ground. I started circling the plaza.

Should I call my wife? No, not yet, I’ll tell her when I get home. This was no surprise I reminded myself. I had wanted to get out of there. I had been dissatisfied all along. I’ll find something better.

Stay calm, I told myself. Be professional. Keep your cool. It will all work out for the best.

I gave myself time to get upset and then some more time to calm down. I had been let go before, and I had always landed on my feet. It had never been easy, but I had always managed to move forward and find something better. In any case, I had been unhappy at Houlihan Lokey, and now I was free.

As I started heading back to the office, my doubts and insecurities returned with a vengeance. The Indian summer sun had vanished completely behind the Manhattan skyline with perfect and painstaking ease, bringing darkness and a chill to the air. Suddenly disoriented, I realized that I had no idea what the end or beginning of the day meant anymore. I was completely lost. The only thing I knew was that I was that I was going to return home to my wife and children without a job.

What was I going to do? I’d been through this before. Why was everything so difficult? Why were there so many challenges in life?

I returned to the office, hiding my mixture of hurt and relief and worked for a few more hours. The work made me calm. I was good at what I did and proud of my professionalism—but there was certainly no reason to stay late.

I stepped out of Houlihan Lokey’s revolving doors for one of the last times ever and walked right into the global economic nightmare of 2008. I didn’t know that at the time, so after recovering from my initial shock and disappointment, my overwhelming feeling was of relief. Finally, I was free of the politics and pretentiousness, the power-struggles and back-stabbing.

I just hoped Cindy would not be too upset.

Some Thanksgiving!

As isolated and frustrated as I had been at Houlihan Lokey, I was still shocked and felt rejected to be made redundant for the second time. The Managing Director who had hired me had barely spoken with me during the entire two years I had worked for him, and same as the first time I had been let go, he had instructed a subordinate to deliver the bad news.

The first time I had been fired, the Managing Director had told me, “You should start looking for a new job. You can have a few months.” However, it had been a relatively new Senior Vice President in the Hedge Fund Portfolio Valuations group who had called me into her office to negotiate the specific termination date.

I had been devastated. I had learned quickly and worked hard for nine months, but the Analyst with whom I worked closest had been anything but my champion. He would take my perfectly good work, scribble meaningless instructions all over it and complain to the Managing Director. Unfortunately, he happened to be the Managing Director’s favorite Analyst, so there was not much I could do.

A year later, at the time of my second termination, it was a Senior Vice President from the Washington DC office who delivered the bad news. I had been working closely with him and a Senior Vice President from the San Francisco office for several months—since the Senior Vice President who had negotiated my termination date the first time and who had subsequently rehired me, had quit.

The Senior Vice President from the Washington DC office called me into the multi-purpose office he used on his weekly visits to New York City and admitted he did not know the full story but said he had been told by the Managing Director to give me notice. I would have until the end of the year, six weeks. There would be no extensions and no severance. After two years of hard work and no benefits, some Thanksgiving! I stared blankly at him and kept my thoughts to myself.

I went back to my desk and lost myself for a while in my work. I gave the distressing news time to sink in and when I couldn’t sit still anymore, I went out for a stroll.

Twice Fired

The first time I was let go from the prestigious investment bank Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin, I was given several months warning. I searched aggressively for a new job, reaching out to business valuation firms, investment banks, hedge funds and private equity firms, but nothing moved forward. Awkwardly and to my great relief, two weeks before my mid-November termination date, I was politely asked—well, begged—to stay. I politely agreed.

A year later, the second time I was let go from Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin, my entire world fell apart. It was a kind of seismic, once in a lifetime crash—the kind that takes more effort than I ever thought possible of family, friends, mentors, journalists and an empathic public to put back together. 

Before I tell you about the job search that ensued, let me explain where I was coming from. Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin was a prominent investment bank, head-quartered in Los Angeles, with an equally large and lucrative office on Park Avenue in the Big Apple. The firm was among the best at what it did: mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring of distressed companies and financial advisory. The firm was not as well-known outside the industry as Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, but it was well-respected by its peers and clients. It was also known to have a hardball attitude.

The Analysts at the firm were treated for several years as initiates in a fraternity, raised until they were chewed up and spit out—or selected to survive. Superiors treated them as servants, abusing their time and efforts.

Associates were considered as members of the firm but were treated only slightly better. Vice Presidents were Officers of the firm and began to earn respect but were still treated as sub-human. Senior Vice Presidents had arrived at a position of reward and responsibility, but the demands could still be overwhelming.

Managing Directors approached divinity. They ruled. Anyone above that was either pleasant because they could afford to be or made themselves unapproachable.

I was a full-time consultant in a newly established Hedge Fund Portfolio Valuations group. I calculated the fair market value of investments, companies, assets, loans and anything our hedge fund clients would pay us to value—so they would have an independent estimation of what their holdings were worth.

I was paid well, more than most, but as a consultant, I received no benefits, no health insurance and no retirement plan. Moreover, I was not in the bonus pool where most of the big money was made.

During the two years I was at Houlihan Lokey, I was not aware of any other full-time consultants in the office. One other consultant arrived for a specific project and left after a few weeks. I was unique and an outcast.

Since I was not an official member of the firm, I was excluded from all internal organizational meetings and from marketing the firm’s services to potential clients. I was treated as a sub-Analyst, the lowest of the low—even though I was twice the age of most of the Analysts and Associates, had an MIT/Sloan School of Management education and had considerable international business experience.

Working in a cubicle, I produced valuations, read finance statements and legal documents, crunched numbers and wrote reports, day after day.

I had been hired as a full-time consultant for a three-to-six month trial period. It had been a tough initiation and a fast learning curve, but I was subsequently bankrolled for two tumultuous yet prosperous years and given the opportunity to develop a new career—and learn a new culture.

While at Houlihan Lokey, I got to experience and closely observe the habits of the Analysts and Associates who surrounded me. Most of the Analysts were in their early twenties—recent college graduates gaining valuable work experience before returning to school for their MBAs. Most of the Associates were in their late twenties or early thirties. They already had MBAs and several years of work experience.

Some of the Analysts and Associates were highly motivated and dedicated workers, while others talked with each other about sports or chatted all day on the telephone with their friends and never seemed to get anything done.

At around seven o’clock every evening, those who remained in the office would order dinner via the Internet. The company paid for dinner for employees who worked long hours.

Soon after ordering their meals, the Analysts and Associates would emerge from their cubicles and start throwing a small football down the isles and over the rows of cubicles. Sometimes, a football would come crashing into my cubicle, and I would pass it back to the gang.

When dinner arrived, most of the Analysts and Associates would stake out empty cubicles and eat together as if they were at a tailgating party, while others—perhaps the ones who were really trying to get some work done—ate alone their desks.

It seemed as though the goal was to stay at work until at least nine o’clock, after which an employee could order a town car at the firm’s expense to take them home. It did not matter whether they lived in the city or one of the outer boroughs or even in New Jersey. If they worked for a certain amount of hours and stayed past a certain time, they could call the car service and the firm would pick up the tab.

Many of the Analysts and Associates made this a nightly habit. It was their culture. It was their bonding. It was their perk for working long hours—or at least putting in the face time. It was free dinner and a ride home. I was not interested in that lifestyle. I preferred to spend my time with my wife and kids.

Experienced MIT Grad For Hire

Just as I was motivated to a start my blog www.oracleofny.com to keep in touch with the hundreds of people from around the world who contacted me by email and telephone with words of encouragement and job leads after my sign board publicity initially went viral, I was motivated to write a book after I eventually landed a job and hundreds more people contacted me proclaiming I was an inspiration and seeking job hunting advice.

During the cold, lonely winter nights and on weekends, while my wife and children were in Omaha, I started writing Experienced MIT Grad For Hire based on my personal experience and career coach Paloma Bowland’s transformational advice.

I want to share my inspirational story and give encouragement to the many people who gave me encouragement when I needed it most — during my long stretch of unemployment. I want to reach out to people all over the world with words of help and hope.

Even a year and a half after my photograph and story first went public, they continue to circulate the globe — and even a year after I started working again, many people ask for the details of my inspirational act, unique job search, what I learned and where it has taken me.

I realized that I enjoy — and am good at — helping others, so I've decided to share the tools I’ve learned over the past year — to inspire people to think and act in new ways to land a job.

Anyone who is looking for a job or who could use a bit of personal inspiration may be interested in my informative tale of creativity, bravery, perseverance and practical job hunting advice.

Don’t give up!

 

Outlook for the Economy

From Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Economic Club of New York:

In addition to constrained bank lending, a second area of great concern is the job market. Since December 2007, the U.S. economy has lost, on net, about 8 million private-sector jobs, and the unemployment rate has risen from less than 5 percent to more than 10 percent. Both the decline in jobs and the increase in the unemployment rate have been more severe than in any other recession since World War II. 

Besides cutting jobs, many employers have reduced hours for the workers they have retained. For example, the number of part-time workers who report that they want a full-time job but cannot find one has more than doubled since the recession began, a much larger increase than in previous deep recessions.

In addition, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers has fallen to 33 hours, the lowest level in the postwar period. These data suggest that the excess supply of labor is even greater than indicated by the unemployment rate alone.

With the job market so weak, businesses have been able to find or retain all the workers they need with minimal wage increases, or even with wage cuts. Indeed, standard measures of wages show significant slowing in wage gains over the past year. Together with the reduction in hours worked, slower wage growth has led to stagnation in labor income. Weak income growth, should it persist, will restrain household spending.

The best thing we can say about the labor market right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly. Declines in payroll employment over the past four months have averaged about 220,000 per month, compared with 560,000 per month over the first half of this year. The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance is well off its high of last spring, but claims still have not fallen to ranges consistent with rising employment.

Although economic pain is widespread across industries and regions, different groups of workers have been affected differently. For example, the unemployment rate for men between the ages of 25 and 54 has risen from less than 4 percent in late 2007 to 10.3 percent in October--nearly double the rise in unemployment among adult women. This discrepancy likely reflects the high concentration of job losses in manufacturing, construction, and financial services, industries in which men make up the majority of workers.

From the perspective of America's economic future, the effect of the recession on young workers is particularly worrisome: The unemployment rate among people between the ages of 16 and 24 has risen to 19 percent--and among African American youths, it is now about 30 percent. When young people are shut out of the job market, they lose valuable opportunities to gain work experience and on-the-job training, potentially reducing their future wages and employment opportunities.

Given this weakness in the labor market, a natural question is whether we might be in for a so-called jobless recovery, in which output is growing but employment fails to increase.

Productivity is defined as output per hour of work. Thus, essentially by definition, a jobless recovery--in which output is growing but hours of work are not--must be a period of productivity growth. In the jobless recoveries that followed the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions, productivity growth was quite strong. It may seem paradoxical that productivity growth--which in the longer term is the most important source of increases in real wages and living standards--can have adverse consequences for employment in the short term. But, when the demand for goods and services is growing slowly, that may be the case.

Valuation Support for Complex Corporate Litigation

My partners for complex corporate litigation support are regularly chosen as experts for litigation matters in the Delaware Court of Chancery and other jurisdictions because of their experience and ingenuity. Their well-supported written reports and experience in testimony add tremendous value to complex cases. Some of their opinions have shaped case law.

My partners' areas of expertise include determination of fair value and fair market value, economic damages, intellectual property damages, and contractual issues such as material adverse effect clauses. Over the years, their valuation and damages opinions have been accepted by courts across the country.

Unemployment Situation

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 percent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. 

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October, reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. 

Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October, up from 484,000 a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Valuation Services and Job Raw

I am now offering valuation services by connecting potential clients with best practices valuations firms and experts in various niches of the valuation field, from ABS pricing to tax-related valuations and from transaction-related opinions to complex corporate litigation valuation support. Please contact me for your all your valuation needs.

I am also offering job-hunting advice. I was interviewed by Mekahlo of NBC LA News Raw and offered viewers some of the advice I have been writing about for the past few months.

www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local-beat/Job_Raw__OracleOfNY_com_Los_Angeles.html